The UK is careering toward a net zero backlash – or 'greenlash' – unless Labour acts quickly

Hitting net zero emissions by 2050 is not just a political commitment, it is a legal necessity. Progress toward the goal has been reasonably successful so far, with the UK emitting half as much carbon dioxide today as we did in 1990. However, that success has largely been driven behind the scenes, for instance, through changes to the energy mix and how electricity is produced. The current phase of decarbonisation is different and harder, relying much more on the public to make changes to their lifestyles, and the pace of change has been correspondingly slower and behind target. 20% of the UK’s carbon emissions come from homes, and most of that comes from heating.

People want net zero, but they don’t want to do the things needed to achieve that goal.

It’s not that the British public are climate sceptics. Countless pieces of research, including the Social Market Foundation’s recent report, have found strong support for the net zero target. Our research also found that the majority of homeowners (60%) believe that as a society, we need to move to low carbon heating.

But talk is cheap, and people feel less positive about actually taking action. Our polling found that decarbonising heat is not seen as a net zero priority, with only a minority thinking it should be a top priority for helping government to reach net zero. Only 46% of people think they should do their part by having low carbon heating, such as a heat pump, installed in their home.

One diagnosis is that ordinary people are alienated from net zero. They don’t feel as if they are part of the transition. Rather, it is something happening around them and to them, rather than with them and they don’t fully understand why they are being asked to change their behaviour. Only 13% of people think the government has done a good job of engaging the public on the topic of the transition, with just a further 6% thinking they have done an excellent job.

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In other countries, a similar conflict between ideals and practice has resulted in strong pushbacks against climate policies.

This public hesitancy and disengagement has created the conditions for a brewing international anti-net zero storm. Across continental Europe we have seen a “greenlash” (backlash toward climate and environmental policies). In some cases, these have forced full on U-turns.

In Germany, climate protection has wide, cross-generational support, and many think that progress on the energy transition is too slow. Despite this, when whispers of a new heating law that would require new heating systems to be powered by 65% renewable energy began to emerge, the response was shockingly hostile. This was not generally resistance to the principle of environmentalism, but grew out of concerns of fairness and affordability. The German government was caught flat-footed, without an effective public engagement strategy.

The concerns played into the hands of the populist far-right Alternative für Deutschland(AfD), who argued that the policy was elitist. That, in turn, gave them a platform for electoral success and the opportunity to undermine the broader climate agenda, threatening Germany’s march toward its own net zero target.

The UK could well be heading toward its own greenlash if the government doesn’t urgently prioritise a public engagement strategy.

The UK government should consider Germany a cautionary tale. The confusion and uncertainty over the heating transition we found in our polling, paired with a small, but vocal anti-net zero movement here, suggests we have all the conditions to be next in line for a greenlash of our own.

The net zero backlash is not inevitable

Making the public feel that they are a part of the transition through a public engagement strategy could help to answer the public’s questions, assuage concerns, and build support for low carbon heating.

Inviting people to contribute to discussions on heat decarbonisation plans in their local area can give them a voice, and make them feel like a participant rather than observer. Actions like modelling the use of heat pumps in public buildings, shows the government is taking the same steps it is asking the public to do. It also allows the public an opportunity to experience a heat pump working. Both of which can build trust in the technology and the move to decarbonised heat. Our research found that concerns and questions about heat pumps can vary depending on age and income. Ensuring that messaging targets the specific concerns of different sub-groups, i.e going beyond providing general information, can further build confidence in the technology and help people to see how it could fit into their lives.

For this to be truly successful the government needs to act now. The proposed phase out date for gas boilers in existing homes is 2035. That gives the government ten years to engage the public and bring them on board. Failure to do so will not only be an issue for heat decarbonisation, but risks jeopardising the net zero transition overall.

Niamh O Regan is a senior researcher at the Social Market Foundation.

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